The box office has been relatively sleepy, at least in terms of new releases, over the last few weeks, with Kraven the Hunter, Y2K, and the animated Lord of the Rings prequel all crashing and burning at the box office. The silver lining was that Wicked and Moana 2 have proven to be blockbusters, while Gladiator II has done better than expected in both North America and abroad.

This weekend sees the release of two major family films which will likely be battling it out at the box office. Paramount Pictures will be opening Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (read our review) while Disney will be opening their Lion King prequel, Mufasa. Even though 2019’s The Lion King was made over $1.5 billion, the sequel is expected to have a muted opening. I’m expecting in the neighbourhood  of $50 million, which will put it on the lower end of Disney movies in what’s otherwise been a banner year for the studio. The silver lining is that holiday matinees will likely be strong, so expect it to have better legs than it would otherwise.

So why are my estimates so low? Frankly, the studio is making a terrible choice in opening the movie against Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which is going for the same family audience but also appeals to teenagers and young adults in a way Mufasa does not. With Jim Carrey in dual roles, and Keanu Reeves voicing Shadow. I expect it to have a killer $70 million opening, with way more to come over the holidays. 

Otherwise, the top five should be rounded out by Moana 2, Wicked and Kraven the Hunter. Here are our predictions:

1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3: $70 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King: $50 million
3. Moana 2: $15 million
4. Wicked: $12 million
5. Kraven the Hunter: $6 million

What will you be seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!

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