This weekend sees the release of Twisters, a movie that tries to continue the legacy of the classic 1996 film with new stars and cutting-edge VFX and is Universal’s next big hope for a franchise. However, stars Daisy Edgar-Jones and Glen Powell are an unproven commodity at the box office, and no one seems quite sure what kind of opening it will have. One way or another, it’ll open in the top spot, but box office analysts are having a field day. I’ve read reports that run a pretty wide gamut, with some naysayers predicting it won’t open above $40 million, while others, such as the usually reliable BoxOfficePro, expect it to make in the $60-75 million range (an unusually wide spread for them).

The movie’s big selling point, outside the tornadoes, is second-billed star Glen Powell, who Hollywood is positioning as the next big star. While Powell is charming and popular, his biggest hit remains Top Gun: Maverick, which was a Tom Cruise movie all the way. Anyone But You did great business, but over a long stretch of time, it initially opened poorly. While he could become a movie star in time, he’s not guaranteed box office – yet – and it’ll be interesting to see how his career pans out. Hollywood often tips leading men for stardom, but it doesn’t always work. Remember way back in 2005-2006 when Josh Lucas, fresh off of Sweet Home Alabama, was the lead in Stealth and Poseidon? Or Jai Courtenay’s run? Or Armie Hammer? There is no shade on any of these guys, but ultimately, audiences and not executives decide who a star is.

That said, I expect Twisters to open reasonably well, as one of our writers, E.J. Tangonan, told me he was turned away from a paid preview screening last night because it was sold out, which is a great sign. I expect it to make $50 million or so, with the chance it could get some overflow business once Deadpool & Wolverine takes over the box office next weekend. I caught it earlier this week and mostly enjoyed it.

Second place is pretty much a no-brainer, with Despicable Me 4 on track to make in the $25 million range, but third place will be a nail-biter. Everyone will be watching to see whether last weekend’s horror breakout, Longlegs, has (long) legs at the box office or whether Inside Out 2 will be able to overtake it. I think the latter will happen, but not by a huge margin.

Check out my predictions below:

1. Twisters: $50 million
2. Despicable Me 4: $25 million
3. Inside Out 2: $12 million
4. Longlegs: $10 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One: $7 million

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