The buzz has been steadily rising the last few weeks for Jon M. Chu’s Wicked Part I, the long-anticipated big-screen adaptation of the hit Broadway show. In our weekly box office predictions column, we forecast the movie opening to $120 million, and the film opened just a little bit below that, with an estimated $114 million weekend. That makes it only the fourth film this year to open north of $100 million, and positions it well to keep earning big bucks over the upcoming holiday weekend. While it will see big competition from Moana 2, I expect Wicked to show big staying power, with it possible that the movie will end its domestic run north of $300 million, which is a significant number. While I was wary of it, I was pleasantly surprised by how much I enjoyed it (read my review), and audiences seem to agree, earning an A CinemaScore rating. 

By contrast, Gladiator II opened slightly above our predictions, with an estimated $55.5 million weekend, a solid (if unspectacular) debut for an R-rated historical drama. It marks Ridley Scott’s second biggest domestic opening, below 2001’s Hannibal, which opened with $58 million. It’s co-star Denzel Washington’s biggest opener ever, with it beating his last collaboration with Ridley Scott, American Gangster, which opened with $43 million. 

Given the opening, whether or not we ever get a Gladiator III likely depends on how it performs domestically over the next few weeks, and how good the international box office take is. The $55 million opening is good, but whether or not it earns enough money to justify another film remains to be seen. The CinemaScore is B, which is decent, but again – unspectacular. 

Given the increased competition, it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise that Red One, this Christmas action flick starring Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans, tumbled a big 59% this weekend for a poor $13.2 million weekend and a $53 million total. Unless the Thanksgiving attendance is huge, this $200 million flick will finish its run way under $100 million domestic.

Fourth place on the chart went to Angel Studios, with their faith-based historical drama, Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin earning a solid $5.1 million. The indie studio also has another big swing prepped for the holiday season, with them releasing Homestead around Christmastime, which will also get a companion TV series which will be released online in the same way as their breakout hit, The Chosen. 

Venom: The Last Dance slipped to fifth place, making $4 million for a $133 million domestic total. It seems likely the movie will end its run around $145-50 million, which makes it the lowest domestic grosser in the series, although the international box office take has been good. 

The faith-based Best Christmas Pageant even slipped to sixth place, with it facing strong competition from Wicked. It made $3.5 million for a $25.5 million total. With a reported $10 million budget, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever is likely one of Lionsgate’s more profitable movies this year.

A24’s Heretic continued to perform well, making $2.3 million for a domestic total just under $25 million. The Wild Robot made $2 million for a $140 million total as it wraps up its (successful) domestic run. Smile 2 made $1.11 million for a $67 million total, while Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain rounded out the top 10 with $1.1 million for a $4.9 million total.

Next weekend is likely going to be one of the biggest of the year, with Moana 2, Wicked, and Gladiator II all expected to bring in big bucks. What are you planning to go see? Let us know in the comments!

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