While it was assumed that Madame Web was going to liven up the box office a bit this holiday weekend, given a lack of competition, poor word-of-mouth (including a deadly C+ CinemaScore) and dire reviews are dooming it to be one of the worst-performing superhero movies in recent memory. Indeed, it looks like Bob Marley: One Love is doing much better than expected, grossing a mighty $14 million at the Valentine’s Day box office compared to Madame Web’s $6 million. While box office forecasters warned that the Marley pic would be front-loaded, that may actually not be the case, with the film receiving top-notch word of mouth and a much-desired A CinemaScore rating. What that tells us is that audiences really love the movie, so business may, in fact, build over the long weekend.

As such, our box office predictions for this weekend peg Bob Marley: One Love as having an easy win, with about a $20 million opening weekend and closer to $40 million for the 6-day holiday. As for Madame Web, I think it won’t make it to $12 million for the weekend, with a $20 million six-day haul. That would put it well behind the $39 million Morbius made on its first weekend and not even close to the $46 million The Marvels opened with, and both of those films were considered flops. It looks like Madame Web is even more of a disaster.

The Christian TV series The Chosen has episodes 4-6 opening this weekend and should easily claim third place with a solid $6 million for the weekend. The other big flop of the year, Argylle, seems set for a fourth-place finish with $4 million, while Migration should get a bit of a box office boost to finish in fifth with $3.5 million. Why would Migration get a boost? Because it’s President’s Day weekend, and there’s virtually no family fare out there. 

Here are the predictions:

1. Bob Marley: One Love: $20 million
2. Madame Web: $12 million
3. The Chosen: S4 Eps 4-6: $6 million
4. Argylle: $4 million
5. Migration: $3.5 million

What are you going to see this holiday weekend? Let us know in the comments!

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