After being stuck with a day and date HBO Max release at the height of the pandemic, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two is getting a conventional theatrical release. This means audiences will finally get to experience the epic Frank Herbert adaptation the way it was meant to be seen: on the big screen (and in IMAX). While the first movie only opened to a modest $41 million, we fully expect the sequel to make double that this weekend. The obvious reason, of course, is that the movie won’t be available on MAX, but I also think word of mouth on this one will be stronger than it was for the first film. While Dune was great, it can’t be denied that there’s a massive quality jump in the sequel, with many saying it’s the Dark Knight compared to the first film’s Batman Begins and should establish Villeneuve as one of the biggest directors in the world. 

So the question remains: will it crack $100 million this weekend? It seems unlikely at the moment, as this is a winter release, but anything is possible. However, even if it “only” makes $80 million, it’s worth remembering that it has very little competition over the next few weeks, Kung Fu Panda 4 hits theaters next weekend, but it’s going for a different audience than Dune is. In fact, the movie will have no real competition until Ghostbusters Frozen Empire in three weeks.

Otherwise, the box office should be relatively quiet this weekend, with holdover Bob Marley: One Love expected to make around $7 million, which should be good enough to put it just a bit ahead of the next batch of episodes opening for The Chosen, which should make around $6 million. Fourth place will likely be a battle between the faith-based Ordinary Angels, which seems bound to lose some of its audience to The Chosen, and Madame Web. Ordinary Angels should make about $4 million. In comparison, Madame Web should collapse into fifth place with under $3 million, pretty much ending any chance that the film has of crossing the $45 million mark at the domestic box office.

My predictions:

1. Dune: Part Two: $80 million
2. Bob Marley: One Love: $7 million
3. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8: $6 million
4. Ordinary Angles: $4 million
5. Madame Web: $3 million

Are you going to see Dune: Part Two this weekend? Let us know in the comments! 

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