This weekend, it’s Muad’Dib vs Kung Fu Panda at the box office, with the second frame of Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two set to face some competition for the top spot. While Kung Fu Panda is certainly going for a younger audience than Dune, it’s worth noting that since Wonka and Migration back over the Christmas holidays, the multiplexes have been curiously short of family fare. As such, Kung Fu Panda 4 has a real shot at opening better than any film in the franchise since the original way back in 2008. The last two sequels only opened in the 40-million-ish range, but given that the franchise has been dormant for eight years, pent-up demand may drive it to a strong start, although it seems very unlikely to cross $50 million. 

Nevertheless, most box office forecasters are predicting a close race between Dune Part Two and Kung Fu Panda 4, with each film looking to gross anywhere from $40 to $50 million. As it’s March break in a lot of places, I think Kung Fu Panda 4 will eke out a victory with a $48 million start, while Dune Part Two should earn about $44 million in its second weekend, which would be a great result for the well-reviewed blockbuster sequel.

Given the A CinemaScore rating, it seems like Dune 2 is all but sure to earn north of $40 million on the lower end this weekend. The top two films will propel the overall sluggish 2024 box office this weekend, although nothing else this weekend seems likely to do particularly well. The new Blumhouse horror film, Imaginary, will have to overcome poor word of mouth to open much better than their last film, Night Swim, with it likely earning about $11 million for the weekend. While it has a teddy bear bad guy, the movie hasn’t caught on like M3GAN did, with Lionsgate lacking the marketing muscle of regular Blumhouse distributor Universal Pictures. 

The other big question mark this weekend is how Angel Studios will do with Cabrini. The film comes from Sound of Freedom director Alejandro Monteverde (check out our interview with him), but since it’s about a Catholic Saint in the late 19th century, it doesn’t have the same action hook as the previous film. We’re expecting a modest $4 million start, which should put it below holdover Bob Marley: One Love, which may draw a family audience over this March break weekend.

Here are our predictions:

1. Kung Fu Panda 4: $48 million
2. Dune: Part Two: $44 million
3. Imaginary: $11 million
4. Bob Marley: One Love: $5 million
5. Cabrini: $4 million

Do you think Dune will beat Panda or vice versa? Let us know in the comments!

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