The consensus out there seems to be that 20th Century Studios’ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is a sure bet to dominate the box office this weekend, with studio estimates putting it in the $50 million range. While that certainly seems reasonable considering the fact that the two last Apes movies, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and War for the Planet of the Apes, opened with $72 million and $56 million, respectively, I’m not buying it. 

The fact is, and I’m sorry to say this, the market has changed. Audiences will no doubt turn out to see Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, which has been well-reviewed (including by me), but I also think a good chunk may opt to wait for its inevitable Disney Plus digital release. That’s why I do not think it’s going to open much north of $40 million.

Even still, that will put it well ahead of the disastrous opening The Fall Guy suffered through last weekend, with it inevitable that the (really good) film will wind up being a money loser. The amount of a loss the studio will take will likely be revealed this weekend, when it becomes clear how much the presumably good word of mouth will allow it to hold up. I’m expecting a modest decline in the 55% region, which would mean a $15 million weekend. If it makes less than that, expect a very quick turnaround to VOD for this Ryan Gosling vehicle.

The Zendaya drama, Challengers, should be able to hold on to third place with a $5 million weekend. It’ll end up making a decent amount of coin before finding a bigger audience when it makes its debut on Prime Video, with this being an Amazon-MGM movie. It’ll be interesting to see if Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace will be able to attract much of an audience this weekend, with it’s re-release being held over a second weekend in many markets. It could make in the $2 million-ish range, which would give it a fifth-place finish, while Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should be able to overtake it in fourth place, with about $3 million. Tarot should lose most of its audience and hang on to fifth place with about $1.5 million.

Here are my predictions:

1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $40 million

2. The Fall Guy: $15 million

3. Challengers: $5 million

4. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire: $3 million

5. Tarot: $1.5 million

What are you going to see this weekend?

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