We’re about to witness one of the most brutal battles in the entire Mad Max saga. Immortan Joe and Dementus were nothing compared to our heroine’s final and most deadly enemy: a chubby orange cat named Garfield. Indeed, we’re about to see one of the biggest and most unlikely box office battles of the summer. While most box office analysts believe audiences will choose Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, George Miller’s epic prequel to Fury Road, as their Memorial Day movie of choice, family audiences heading out this holiday weekend may make The Garfield Movie a stronger-than-expected opponent.

I’m expecting Furiosa to make about $40 million this weekend, with Garfield in a close second place with $35 million. Why so low on Furiosa? I have a few reasons. For one thing, even if Fury Road is one of the greatest action films of all time, it was only a modest box office success, opening to $45 million in 2015 when the movie theatre business was much healthier. With shrinking windows, declining attendance, and the fact that two big stars from the last movie, Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron, are absent, I think this will have a good but unspectacular start. However, word-of-mouth should be strong in the weeks to come. Furiosa targets an adult audience, and they don’t tend to rush out and see movies opening weekend.

Garfield, on the other hand, should have a strong weekend with kids off school. Matinees will be huge on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, with there even being a chance it could narrowly outgross Furiosa. I don’t think that will happen though, as the overseas numbers, while good, don’t point to this being a global blockbuster along the lines of star Chris Pratt’s last animated movie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie (which paired him with Furiosa herself, Anya Taylor Joy). 

Another movie that will target the family audience over the holiday weekend is John Krasinski’s IF, which is coming off a softer-than-expected weekend. Given the A CinemaScore, many expect word of mouth to be excellent, so it should have a $20-25 million weekend. 

Here are our predictions:

1. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga: $40 million
2. The Garfield Movie: $35 million
3. IF: $20 million
4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $12 million
5. The Strangers: Chapter 1: $6 million

What do you think will rule the box office this weekend? Let us know in the comments!

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