The weekend sees the release of Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Given the company’s dire track record as of late, many expect it to be the movie that puts the company back on top of the box office heap. Over at Box Office Pro, they predict the movie can open with anywhere from $85 to 115 million. While I’d love to see the box office get a much-needed kick in the pants, I think these predictions are too optimistic for a few reasons.

For one, PIxar’s track record in terms of openings has been pretty bad over the last few years. Lightyear, which everyone assumed would be a smash hit given that it’s a spin-off of the Toy Story movies, opened with $50 million, a number many considered disastrous. However, it got a lot worse, with Elemental opening to a terrible $29 million last summer, even though it legged out to a decent $150 million plus finish (significantly ahead of Lightyear, which was torpedoed by bad worth of mouth). Inside Out 2 is getting respectful reviews (including ours), but no one is saying its on par with the original, which opened with $90 million nine years ago, on track to an incredible $350 million plus finish – a number that used to be pretty achievable for the company.

But, ever since the disastrous idea to release Pixar movies direct to Disney Plus during the pandemic and to shorten theatrical windows, family audiences have been very picky about what they go see. Going to a movie with the family is very pricey, and people are having to tighten their belts a bit, and they’ve been feeling it at the box office for years. While I still think Inside Out 2 will open decently, I do not expect it to make over $60 million. Even that number might be overly optimistic, but we’ll see.

Meanwhile, Bad Boys: Ride or Die should easily hang on to number 2, with it looking to fall about 50% to $28 million. The Garfield Movie should lose most of its family audience in the face of Inside Out 2, meaning it will finish in 3rd place with about $6 million. John Krasinski’s IF should hold on to 4th place with about $5 million, while WB’s The Watchers, which lost a huge chunk of its audience this week, should slip to 6th behind Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, which should make about $3 million.

Here are my predictions:

1. Inside Out 2: $60 million
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die: $27 million
3. The Garfield Move: $6 million
4. IF: $5 million
5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $3 million

Do you think Inside Out 2 will do better than I think it will? Let us know in the comments!

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