It looks like Steve Carrell’s Gru and his Minions are still a huge draw at the box office, with Deadline reporting that Despicable Me 4 grossed $27 million on Wednesday night, with a potential $120 million 5-day start in sight. It’s going head-to-head with Disney’s smash hit, Inside Out 2, which crossed half a billion dollars domestically yesterday.

So, if Despicable Me 4 makes $70 million this weekend, how does it compare to other films in the franchise? Decent, but its opening will actually be on the lower end, with the last film, Minions: The Rise of Gru, opening to a gigantic $107 million over the same holiday weekend in 2022, and that was just as moviegoers started going back to theatres after the pandemic. This opening should align with Despicable Me 3, which opened with $73 million in 2017 before legging out to a big $264 million domestically.

Inside Out 2 shouldn’t have much of a problem holding on to number 2, with it likely to make in the $30 million range. A Quiet Place: Day One posted a franchise record last weekend, but will word of mouth give it a good hold this weekend? I see it dropping in the 55% ish range, meaning it should do around $23 million. Kevin Costner’s passion project, Horizon, is depending on solid word of mouth from older viewers to give it a decent hold. Anything under 50% would be good, although I’m thinking it will fall north of that number to about $5 million. It will likely be beaten by Bad Boys: Ride or Die.

Here are predictions for the weekend:

1. Despicable Me 4: $70 million
2. Inside Out 2: $30 million
3. A Quiet Place: Day One: $23 million
4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die: $6 million
5. Horizon: $5 million

What are you seeing this weekend?

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