While this week’s box office battle should have rather easy-to-predict winners for the top two spots, a separate battle between old-fashioned star power and indie horror is being fought further down the chart. Indeed, expect last weekend’s 4th of July champ Despicable Me 4 to easily top the weekend box office with a solid $35 million-ish weekend. Pixar’s highest-grossing movie, Inside Out 2, shouldn’t be too far behind with a gross in the $20 million range.

However, it’s the battle for third place that’s really interesting this weekend. On the one hand, there’s the extremely well-reviewed Neon horror release, Longlegs, starring Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage. On the other, there’s Sony’s star-packed Fly Me to the Moon, a period rom-com with a $100 million plus budget starring Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum. In the olden days, Fly Me to the Moon would have easily taken first place, but I’m certain it will be utterly dominated by Longlegs, which I think has a shot at grossing $15 million or more. The reviews have been outstanding, and horror audiences will flock to see what many influential horror names say is a new classic.

As for Fly Me to the Moon, it’s actually an Apple Studios movie, and audiences are getting savvier over the fact that a movie like this will be streaming within weeks on Apple TV Plus. Those glorified streaming films don’t always pay off at the box office, with Argylle another recent flop. With middling reviews and unconvincing trailers, I think everyone but die-hard ScarJo and Tatum fans will skip this one in theaters and wait for streaming.

Here are my predictions:

1. Despicable Me 4: $35 million
2. Inside Out 2: $20 million
3. Longlegs: $15 million
4. A Quiet Place: Day One: $12 million
5. Fly Me to the Moon: $9 million

Do you think I’m way off in how I think Fly Me to the Moon will play? Let me know in the comments!

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