We’re still several weeks out from Moana 2‘s Thanksgiving debut, but long-lead tracking puts the film at saying “You’re welcome” to a $100M+ 5-day launch. The projected total for the animated sequel’s Wednesday through Sunday holiday premiere arrives courtesy of Quorum. In contrast, 2016’s Moana set sail with an $82M premiere over five days. By the end of its run, the spirited island musical banked $248.7M in domestic coconuts, with a $643.3M+ worldwide take. Estimates for Moana 2’s Friday through Sunday earnings range from $75M-$82M.

Opening only in theaters on November 27, 2024, Moana 2 reunites Moana and Maui three years later for an expansive new voyage alongside a crew of unlikely seafarers. After receiving an unexpected call from her wayfinding ancestors, Moana must journey to the far seas of Oceania and into dangerous, long-lost waters for an adventure unlike anything she’s ever faced. Directed by David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller and produced by Christina Chen and Yvett Merino, Moana 2 features music by Grammy winners Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear, Grammy nominee Opetaia Foaʻi and three-time Grammy winner Mark Mancina.

According to the numbers, Moana 2 is tracking better than Universal’s Wicked Part One ($67M-$74M) and Paramount’s Gladiator II ($42M-$47M). Despite Wicked’s mass appeal and built-in audience, the sympathetic take on The Wizard of Oz‘s Elphaba is only Part One of a two-part presentation. Some moviegoers don’t like it when movies are split into multiple parts, knowing they’ll need to wait to complete the story. Still, Wicked will draw audiences during the holiday; the same could be said for Gladiator II.

Regarding Moana 2, the anticipated sequel will attract female audiences under 25, with the “Frozen crowd” along for the ride. Men aren’t as keen to join Moana and Maui for another sea-faring adventure, but the film isn’t aiming to reel them in. Moana 2‘s bread and butter lies with kids and parents looking to take a break from holiday madness to enjoy a song-and-dance spectacle with lovable characters and positive messaging.

How much money do you think Moana 2 will make during its 5-day debut on Thanksgiving weekend? Let us know in the comments section below.

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