Disney’s incredible year at the domestic box office continues, with Deadline reporting that Moana 2 made a gargantuan $57.5 million on Wednesday (including Tuesday previews), which gives the company the single best day they’ve ever had for a Walt Disney Animation title. That’s not too far behind Pixar record-breakers like Incredibles 2 ($71.2 million) and Inside Out 2 ($63.5). Despite those big numbers, I’m expecting Moana 2 to fall short of $200 million over the holiday weekend, with word of mouth a good (but not amazing) A-minus, as reported by CinemaScore. Even still, that will be a massive win for the company, with Moana 2 having started life as a Disney Plus animated series before being reformatted (rather late in the game) to a theatrical tentpole. With numbers like that, clearly, they did the right thing.

So, how is the “Glicked” phenomenon fairing? Well, Wicked is playing to boffo business, making over $20 million yesterday. We think it will finish the holiday weekend in the neighbourhood of $95 million, which would be stunning and pave the way to a $4-500 million domestic finish. Just make sure not to wear green makeup to your screenings, folks!

Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II, which has gotten a mixed reaction from critics and fans alike, is still performing well, with the smart money saying it’ll dip about 50% in week 2, meaning a $27 or so million weekend, and $40 or so million for the holiday. That would put its domestic total well above $100 million, although it might be a slow crawl to $200 million if it can make it to the double-century mark at all. 

Red One and Best Christmas Pageant Ever should round out the top five, with neither likely to lose much of their audience given how big the holiday is for family outings to the theatre. Red One should make $12 million, while Best Christmas Pageant Ever should do about $4.5 million.

Here are our predictions:

1. Moana 2: $110 million
2. Wicked: $65 million
3. Gladiator 2: $27 million
4. Red One: $12 million
5. Best Christmas Pageant Ever: $4.5 million

What are you seeing this holiday weekend? Let us know in the comments. 

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