After a strong holiday season, the box office seems set to slow down this weekend, with the only new release being Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, starring Gerard Butler and O’Shea Jackson Jr. The original film opened with a better-than-expected $15 million on its way to a $44 million domestic total. Pantera isn’t expected to open quite as well, and I’m predicting it will open in line with Butler’s own Plane, which made just over $10 million almost exactly two years ago (although that was the more lucrative MLK Jr weekend – which doesn’t happen this year until next week). 

I’d expect Pantera to make about $12 million, and come in just behind Mufasa: The Lion King, which should make about $15 million. Number three will likely go to Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which will make about $10 million. 

The other big new release this weekend is Better Man, the Robbie Williams biopic which recasts the singer with a CGI Chimpanzee. Truth be told, I absolutely loved this movie (read my review), but the box office outlook isn’t good. Better Man opened in limited release over the holidays, and its per-screen average has been poor, with it only making $26k on six screens last weekend. The fact is, in North America, Williams just doesn’t have a big following, and the unusual way it’s filmed might turn off more viewers than it will attract.

As such, expect the top five to be rounded out by two holdovers – Nosferatu and Moana 2. Otherwise, I wouldn’t expect too much from the weekend box office, especially given the horrific wildfires in Los Angeles, so this will be a largely uneventful, quiet weekend before The Wolf Man sweeps in for next weekend’s MLK Day.

Here are our predictions:

1. Mufasa: The Lion King: $15 million
2. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera: $12 million
3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3: $10 million
4. Nosferatu: $8 million
5. Moana 2: $7 million

What are you seeing this weekend?

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